Photo : Tunisian Presidency/ AP
17 July 2023, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #570
War in Ukraine: Day 506 & 507
By Sreeja J S
War on the Ground
On 16 July, Hanna Maliar, Ukraine's Deputy Defence Minister posted on Telegram that the situation continues to worsen in eastern Ukraine. Russia has been advancing in Kupyansk in Kharkiv where intense battles are underway. Ukrainian forces are gradually making gains in Bakhmut. In the South, daily advances are reported, whereas, in the southern Bakhmut, Ukrainian forces are trying to hold their positions against Russian attacks. Further, Russia continues offensive actions in Avdiivsk and Marinsk.
On 15 July, Yonhap News Agency reported that Yoon Suk Yeol, South Korea's President visited South Korea on an unannounced visit following the NATO Summit in Vilnius on 11 and 12 July. Yoon visited the site of mass killings in Bucha near Kyiv before visiting Irpin, the site of large-scale missile attacks. In the joint press conference, Yoon stated that the government of the Republic of Korea allocated USD 100 million (2022) to support Kyiv which would increase to USD 150 million in 2023. According to Ukrinform, Yoon and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine also discussed the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine as Seoul plans to allocate funds for the restoration of infrastructure, assistance to entrepreneurship and reconstruction of the education system.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 16 July, TASS reported that UNSC would hold a meeting on 17 July to discuss the situation in Ukraine and the extension of the Black Sea Initiative as requested by the British mission.
On 15 July, Putin over a phone call with Cyril Ramaphosa, President of South Africa, discussed the African peace initiative and the Black Sea Initiative set to expire on 17 July. According to RT, Putin told Ramaphosa that the grain deal did not fulfil its purpose and the agricultural products that should have been delivered to poorer countries did not reach them while huge shares ended up in Europe. Either the Russia - UN memorandum which facilitated Russian agriculture exports also has not been fulfilled. The leaders further discussed the African peace initiative, including the Russia-Africa summit scheduled in late July.
On 15 July, Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for the Russian foreign ministry, claimed that Western countries are encouraging Ukraine to conduct attacks on Russia’s nuclear sites. According to RT, she was commenting after a Ukrainian drone crashed in Kurchatov, near the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant on 14 July. Kursk, Bryansk, and Belgorod along the borders of Russia have frequently come under attack since the beginning of the invasion. According to RT Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) said that it captured a group of Ukrainian agents who were planning to sabotage nuclear power plants in Leningrad and Tver.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 16 July, Politico wrote that Jake Sullivan, National Security Adviser of the US reaffirmed that Ukraine would be admitted into NATO when it fulfills certain conditions. In an interview with ABC News, he said that Ukraine’s admission into NATO would mean that the alliance and the US are at war with Russia, which neither is prepared for. He said that “Ukraine has made a lot of progress” towards democratic reforms and added that “it has more reforms to make.”
On 15 July, Serbia announced that it would send a new package of humanitarian aid to Ukraine to “overcoming the humanitarian disaster in the Kherson region.” The aid would be in the form of goods and medicines from the Directorate for Commodity Reserves and goods from Commissariat for Refugees and Migration. The government also approved temporary protection for the affected Ukrainian citizens from Kherson.
On 15 July, The New York Times wrote that within the first two weeks of the counteroffensive, Ukraine lost up to 20 per cent of its weaponry, including some of the advanced Western fighting machines. However, the rate of losses was reduced by up to ten per cent in the later weeks, because of changing tactics. The Ukrainian forces started focusing more on wearing down Russian forces with artillery and long-range missiles than charging into enemy minefields and fire. According to The New York Times, the pace of the counteroffensive that came down due to losses would pick up with the delivery of cluster munitions from the US.
On 14 July, Ukrinform reported that the House of Representatives of the US passed the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal year 2024 which would provide for USD 300 million for Ukraine. Earlier, the US Department of Defence announced a USD 800 million security assistance package to Ukraine which included the delivery of cluster munitions and other weapons to Kyiv.
References
Lee Haye-ah, “(LEAD) Yoon makes surprise visit to Ukraine,” Yonhap News Agency, 15 July 2023
“President of South Korea visits Bucha,” Ukrinform, 15 July 2023
“South Korea to increase assistance to Ukraine to $150M,” Ukrinform, 15 July 2023
“In the East, the situation has somewhat worsened,” Telegram, 16 July 2023
“Putin discusses grain deal with South African president,” RT News, 15 July 2023
“NATO sponsoring ‘nuclear terrorism’ – Moscow,” RT News, 15 July 2023
“UNSC to hold meeting on Ukraine on July 17 to be attended by top diplomats,” TASS, 16 July 2023
“US House of Representatives passes NDAA with $300M in aid for Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 15 July 2023
“Serbia sending humanitarian aid to Kherson, Ukraine,” n1info.rs, 15 July 202
“Ukraine’s future is in NATO, U.S. national security adviser affirms,” Politico.eu, 16 July 2023
Lara Jakes, Andrew E Kramer and Eric Schmitt, “After Suffering Heavy Losses, Ukrainians Paused to Rethink Strategy,” The New York Times, 15 July 2023
IN BRIEF
By Sneha Surendran, and Genesy Balasingam
RUSSIA
Lower House of Parliament passes bill to ban gender reassignment surgery
On 14 July, the lower house of the Russian parliament approved a law that will ban trans people from accessing gender reassignment surgery in the country. It will also prohibit people from changing their gender on state documents. Speaker of the Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, stated that the bill will “protect our citizens and our children,” terming gender-affirming surgery a “path to the degeneration of the nation.” He further said: “We are the only European country that opposes all that is happening in the States, in Europe, and does everything to save families and traditional values…And we need to understand that there won't be any future if we don't adopt the law if we don't ban gender change.” Meanwhile, LGBT activists have condemned the move, calling out the state for depriving medical care and civil rights. (Matt Murphy, “Russian parliament bans gender reassignment surgery for trans people,” BBC, 15 July 2023)
SPAIN
Wildfires slow down due to favorable weather conditions; relief efforts continue
On 16 July, officials reported that a change in weather conditions has led to the slowing down of the wildfire on La Palma in Spain’s Canary Islands. This has come as a relief to firefighters as the fires that began on 15 July have already affected an area of about 4600 hectares, burning down over 20 houses and buildings. Tourism Minister Héctor Gómez said that efforts to control the fire were proving effective. Over 300 firefighters and nine water-carrying helicopters have been deployed to prevent further damage. Furthermore, the army’s Military Emergency Unit sent 86 members to the islands to help. Authorities have alerted people to avoid the northwest side of the island. (Ciaran Giles, “Better weather conditions help slow down La Palma wildfire in Spain’s Canary Islands,” Associated Press, 16 July 2023)
THE UK
Government signs treaty to enter Indo-Pacific trade bloc
On 16 July, the UK signed a treaty to enter the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). It is being considered the most significant trade deal since Brexit. The signing occurred in Auckland, New Zealand, and was signed by Business Minister Kemi Badenoch. Badenoch said: “This is a modern and ambitious agreement and our membership in this exciting, brilliant, and forward-looking bloc is proof that the UK's doors are open for business.” She expressed her happiness at the UK getting a “seat at the table in the fastest-growing region.” However, critics have said that the benefits from the new deal hardly compare to the ones that the UK lost with Brexit. The pact will enter into effect in the later half of 2024. (“UK signs 'biggest trade deal' since Brexit,” Deutsche Welle, 16 July 2023)
INTERNATIONAL
EU leaders in Tunisia; announce developments in trade relations and migrant issue
On 16 July, leaders of the EU along with Tunisia’s President met in Tunisia to foster economic and trade ties. They also said that measures to tackle the migrant issue across the Mediterranean Sea were discussed. This is the second visit in a month's time for the heads of Italy, the Netherlands, and the European Commission. The leaders have signed a memorandum with Tunisia in the course of the latest visit. The Ursula Von der Leyen, European Commission’s President said that the memorandum was “a comprehensive package of measures that we will now put into practice swiftly.” She also announced a EUR 10 million program for student exchanges and EUR 65 million from the EU to modernize schools in Tunisia. Meanwhile, Tunisian President, Kais Saied said that he expects early implementation of the signed agreement. (“European Union and Tunisia announce progress in building economic and trade ties, and on migration,” Associated Press, 17 July 2023)
Fisheries deal between EU and Morocco renewal challenged
On 16 July, Deutsche Welle reported that the Morocoo-EU fisheries deal will expire on 17 July, following which European trawlers will be barred from fishing off the Moroccan coast. In return for fishing rights, the EU has allocated USD 233 million to Morocco over the last four years. A spokesperson reported on the new development, said: “At the moment, there are no negotiations between the EU and Morocco over fishing rights,” adding that the partners were looking into possible renewal of the deal. However, renewing the deal could face complications due to the 2021 European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruling which said that the coast off of Western Sahara was exempted from the fishery deal. Morocco considers Western Sahara as part of their territory. Morocco has also indicated that they are looking for a more beneficial deal with the EU. (Marina Strauss, “Morocco-EU fisheries deal set to expire,” Deutsche Welle, 16 July 2023)